1.0 Overview




Forecast accuracy refers to the degree to which the predictions or forecasts of demand for products or services align with the actual demand observed in the marketplace. It is a critical performance measure used to evaluate the effectiveness of demand forecasting processes and to assess how well Solvay is able to anticipate and meet customer demand. High forecast accuracy is essential for efficient operations, optimized inventory management, and customer satisfaction.

The KPI Forecast Accuracy (FA) evaluates the ability to get a visibility on customer's demand.

As an input of S&OP process, reliable forecasts constitute the major way to improve the customer satisfaction via an optimized planning of operations.
In the query, the Forecast Accuracy can be calculated from different forecast sources : 
  • Final Forecast (by default in the report)
  • Sales Team Forecast (optional)
  • Statistical Forecast (optional)
  • Demand Review Forecast (optional)
For a particular month, the Forecast Accuracy is calculated over the last 6 months forecast (M ... M-5); allowing the possibility to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast at several periods ahead. 

Describe the key User profiles that exist for the application. 

General role/Viewer role:

Approver role:

Target Users:

  • Supply Chain Managers
  • Demand Manager
  • Sales Team


VERSION

DATE

MODIFIED BY 

DESCRIPTION

0.01

26.10.2023

Karen Oppong

Initial draft










Data Product Type 
  • Dashboard
  • Report
  • Advanced analytics
  • AI 
  • Others <specify which one>
Technologies
  • BW
  • Tableau
  • Qliksense
  • Talend
  • Dataiku
  • Others <specify which one>

Data Sources 

Note: list of all applications and various environment

  • SAP PF1 (Production environment)
  • SAP WP1
  • SAP PI1
  • BW (versions)
  • iCare CRM 
  • CORE CRM
  • Others <specify the name of the source> 

2.0 Business Process


xxxxx




3.0 Application Feature Overview


Information about the existent Workbooks and the respective BW queries.


ReportsDefinitionPromptsBW Workbook QueryQuery Technical Name















4.0 Functional Specification


4.1 General Data/Calculations 

This section will approach the concepts/definitions that will be used in all the reports and required to understand the data from the reports.

Could be specific fields, closing activities, additional information to work and understand the reports.


Forecast Accuracy : how does it work ?

Basic level and aggregation

The forecast Accuracy is calculated at 2 levels, based on Gross History (GH) from last month :
    • at detailed level : Material, Distribution Channel, Ship-to
    • at aggregated level : at the level required by the user (dynamic calculation at displayed level)

FA Type

BW Core Query

Dashboard

FA ("Simple")

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Aggregated FA

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Weighted FA

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Time frame and snapshots

Snapshots : every 6th of each month, a snapshot is taken for each month in the future up to 6 months. This will allow to calculate FA for periods M-1, M-2, M-3, M-4, M-5 and M-6


  • Example :  For June, the FA M is the picture taken the 6th of July for the month of June (to capture the changes made on June).   M-1 will the the picture taken the 6th of June for June (to capture the changes made on May).  M-2 the picture taken the 6th of May for June (to capture the changes made on April).

Formula and calculation example


Variables and Selection screen

  1. Calendar Year/Month is mandatory (MM.YYYY) as well as UoM for Qty conversion
  2. Other prompts are optional


Key Figures

  Key figures in the report are quantities mandatory to calculate the Forecast Accuracy (FA) : 

The FA is calculated and displayed by default in the query based on Final Forecast 

Other FA can be shown as optional based on other Forecast "sources"

Access to the query 

To access the query, follow the process below
Go to BW Analysis > WBP > Role DP - Demand Planning 



4.2 Process Detail 

4.2.1.  Report/Process Definition 


BW Server
WBP
Application
DP - Demand Planning
Query Name
BW - DP - Forecast Accuracy (Core Query)
Query Technical Name 
BW_QRY_MVDYN11_0005
Core/Specific Scope
Core
Specific Reason
Provider Name 
MVDYN11 - DYN - Reporting
Usage type 
Direct execution in Analysis
Expected users 
Supply Chain Managers, Demand Manager, Sales Team



This section represents the process with detail information for the application. Can include specific or special cases, complex logics , calculations, flows, among others.

Naming convention by System (Reporting layer and Dynasys vs. APO)


ReportingForecasting system (Source)*
BW Core QueryGlobal SC Dashboard

Dynasys

APO (WP1)

APO (PF1)

GH / Gross History
Actual Sales

GH / Gross History

Demand History
History
Forecast type
FF / Final Forecast
Final Forecast

FF / Final Forecast

PreSOIP Plan
Consensus Forecast
STATF / Statistical Forecast
n/a

STATF / Statistical Forecast

Statistical Forecast
System Forecast
STF / Sales Team Forecast
n/a

STF / Sales Team Forecast

Sales Team Forecast
AM forecast
DRF / Demand Review Forecast
n/a

DRF / Demand Review Forecast

PreSOIP Plan
Shifted Forecast

Dynasys

EP: Order book in Requested departure date (we call it "Demand history ETD", it's the pure demand, the source is the Sales order in SAP).

Aroma/Silica/TS/Novecare:  Order book in Requested delivery date (we call it "Demand history ETA", it's the pure demand, the source is the Sales order in SAP).
SA&D: Shipped history in departure date (source is Delivery, taking the Act GI date in SAP)

For Peroxides, it depends on the zone :

Perox except NA: Order book in Requested delivery date (we call it "Demand history ETA", it's the pure demand, the source is the Sales order in SAP).
Perox NA: Shipped history in departure date


APO

For Special Chem, forecasts are managed in ETD.

Time periodBW Core QueryGlobal SC DashboardDynaSys

Forecast for :

Forecast input

in DynaSys as of 

Captured (from Dynasys to BW) on:

Mn/aMMarch 2019

March, 31rst 2019

except for TS : April, 6th

6th of April 2019 (irrelevant)
M-1M-1M-1March 2019

February, 28th 2019

except for TS : March, 6th

6th of March 2019
M-2M-2M-2March 2019

January ,31rst 2019

except for TS : February, 6th

6th of February 2019
M-3M-3M-3March 2019

December, 31rst 2019

except for TS : January, 6th

6th of January 2019
M-4M-4M-4March 2019

November,30th 2018

except for TS : December, 6th

6th of December 2018
M-5M-5M-5March 2019

October,31rst 2018

except for TS : November, 6th

6th of November 2018

Key Figures

  Key figures in the report are quantities mandatory to calculate the Forecast Accuracy (FA) : 

The FA is calculated and displayed by default in the query based on Final Forecast 

Other FA can be shown as optional based on other Forecast "sources"


5.0 Non-functional Descriptions 


Please populate the relevant section and delete those that are not applicable.

5.1 Usability

Usability is about the ease with which a User can learn to start using the solution and the ease with which they can use the system.  In addition to ease of learning and ease of use, usability also includes areas such as ease of recall, error avoidance and handling, accessibility among others e.g., 99% of metadata entry Users who have use the Maintenance Dashboard should be able to change filters, extract etc., when required.  Maintenance data will be centrally stored in the Google Cloud platform, which will be available to other applications e.g., and Dashboards if needed.

5.2 Regulatory Compliance

Software systems must comply with legal and regulatory e.g., GDPR requirements, this can change depending on country, organisation industry and / or region.  The software systems must be secure from unauthorized access.  The Maintenance Dashboard will comply with Solvay’s regulations and compliance e.g., access only granted to authorized Users.

5.3 Security

Security refers to essential aspects that assure a solution and its components will be protected against unauthorized access or malware attacks.  Important considerations related to security aspects of a system are User authentication, User authorization or User access privileges, data theft, malware attacks, data encryption, and maintaining audit trails, e.g., only Users with administrator access shall be able to create new accounts and assign data access privileges to the new accounts e.g.,

  • All data will be encrypted in the dashboard
  • Only authorised Users / Administrative Users will be able to access data.
  • Maintenance data will be split between either SCO or ECO, and Users will only have authority to one Entity data.

5.4 Performance

Performance defines how fast a software system or a particular section of it responds to certain User actions under a certain workload.  In most cases, this metric explains how long a User must wait before the target operation happens e.g., the page renders, a transaction is processed, etc., given the overall number of Users now.  Performance requirements may describe background processes invisible to Users, e.g., backup and speed of data transfers. 

5.5 Reliability

Reliability is the ability of a solution or its component to perform its required functions without failure under predefined conditions for a specified time / period.  Reliability can possibly be specified in terms of average time system runs before failure occurs, percentage of operations completed successfully within a time / period, maximum acceptable failure probability, or number of failures within a period.  Reliability aspects are in reference to (but not limited to) evaluation of the system to be considered as reliable, classification of reliability defining failures vs. regular failures, and the impact of failure on business operations.  The Maintenance Dashboard will display data from the previous refresh of data.   

5.6 Scalability

Scalability refers to the degree to which a solution can evolve to handle increased amounts of work.  The increased amount of work could be in terms of the user base, transactions, data, network traffic, or other factors e.g., the system should be able to handle an additional load of a maximum of 5,000 Users every month for the next 6 months without any noticeable performance impacts.  

5.7 Compatibility

Interoperability is the degree to which the solution is compatible with other components.  It is a measure of how effectively the system interoperates with other software systems and how easily it integrates with external hardware devices.

Interoperability aspects to be discussed during elicitation are in reference to (but not limited to) software systems to be interfaced with along with data / messages to be exchanged and any standard data formats, hardware components to be integrated with, and any standard communication protocols to be followed e.g., Order Management system will push the order file into a secured file transfer protocol server from where it will be loaded into the system through a daily job.  To guarantee between Google Cloud platform and SAP BW Queries e.g., BW_QRY_MVPMOR01_0002, Solvay has introduced a new tool called Xtract (Xtract).

5.8 Availability

Availability is the degree to which the solution is operable and accessible when required. It is a measure of time during which the system is fully operational e.g., available for use and sometimes included as a Service Level Agreement (SLA) considering its criticality to the business, e.g., the system shall be at least 99% available on weekdays between 09:00 to 18:30 Central European Time (CET).

5.9 Refresh of the Data

Frequency, data, and time of the data refresh in the data product.